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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Illinois State
@
Drake
|
+17.4 | 143.8 | 90% | 60–95 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-0.7 | 138.1 | 41% | 77–60 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Wofford
|
+2.6 | 142.4 | 60% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Evansville
|
+1.9 | 132.4 | 61% | 51–58 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Miami
|
-4.7 | 137.6 | 36% | 75–77 | ✗ |
UCF
@
Memphis
|
+6.6 | 136.3 | 75% | 69–96 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Missouri State
|
-6.9 | 135.7 | 24% | 70–50 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Jackson State
|
+12.1 | 136.6 | 88% | 55–63 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Grambling
|
+25.9 | 142.1 | 90% | 72–85 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+18.1 | 129.7 | 89% | 63–87 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Texas Southern
|
+1.6 | 147.7 | 57% | 49–66 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Texas Tech
|
+4.7 | 139.9 | 70% | 52–57 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+20.6 | 154.4 | 91% | 77–91 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
NJIT
|
-0.9 | 134.9 | 40% | 75–71 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Marquette
|
+5.3 | 131.3 | 72% | 67–70 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Notre Dame
|
+4.6 | 139.8 | 71% | 58–79 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Central Michigan
|
-7.7 | 157.1 | 25% | 83–69 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+4.1 | 141.1 | 60% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Kent State
|
+10.9 | 151.1 | 84% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Ball State
|
-2.1 | 152.5 | 39% | 78–58 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Maryland
|
+1.0 | 135.8 | 58% | 60–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.