Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | PV -2000 ALST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +24 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PV -18.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.6 (+29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -16.0 (+8.0) | 129.4 (+20.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -13.8 (+10.2) | 132.1 (+17.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -15.9 (+8.1) | 131.0 (+19.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -18.1 (+5.9) | 129.7 (+20.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ALST 95 – 80 PV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ALST 66 – 63 PV |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ALST 74 – 67 PV |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ALST 56 – 55 PV |
| Jan 22, 2022 | PV 70 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-0 | 3-6 |
| Away | 5-3 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#194) | -17.2 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#149) | -2.79 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#164) | -4.55 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#118) | 0.322 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 40.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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