Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | BALL +220 BUF -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +20 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -3.8 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -1.2 (-18.8) | 151.4 (-15.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.7 (-17.3) | 153.8 (-17.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -1.8 (-18.2) | 155.7 (-19.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -2.1 (-17.9) | 152.5 (-16.5) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BUF 63 – 53 BALL |
| Jan 3, 2026 | BUF 85 – 72 BALL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BALL 80 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BALL 89 – 76 BUF |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BALL 87 – 59 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 12-5 |
| Home | 7-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#182) | 5.2 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#217) | -0.28 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#206) | 0.07 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#168) | 0.480 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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