Betting Lines
| Spread | EVAN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN -125 VAL +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +7 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | EVAN -1.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -1.6 (+5.4) | 132.1 (-23.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EVAN -1.9 (+5.1) | 128.6 (-19.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -1.2 (+5.8) | 132.3 (-23.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -1.9 (+5.1) | 132.4 (-23.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#261) | -4.9 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#240) | -1.02 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#240) | -1.29 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#254) | 0.438 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 19.2% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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