Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -400 UCF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +27 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -6.1 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -6.4 (+20.6) | 133.9 (+31.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -5.5 (+21.5) | 133.3 (+31.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -7.4 (+19.6) | 136.1 (+28.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -6.6 (+20.4) | 136.3 (+28.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2023 | MEM 81 – 76 UCF |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MEM 64 – 63 UCF |
| Jan 12, 2023 | UCF 107 – 104 MEM |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 85 – 69 UCF |
| Feb 6, 2022 | MEM 88 – 60 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#66) | 5.0 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#65) | 1.27 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#63) | 1.91 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#107) | 0.544 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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