Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NJIT +200 UMBC -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NJIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -1.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -0.6 (-3.4) | 135.1 (+10.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.8 (-3.2) | 135.5 (+10.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.3 (-3.7) | 137.1 (+8.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.9 (-3.1) | 134.9 (+11.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 52 NJIT |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UMBC 87 – 74 NJIT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UMBC 95 – 91 NJIT |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UMBC 87 – 64 NJIT |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UMBC 79 – 60 NJIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NJIT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-12 | 14-6 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-4 |
| Home | 3-5 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 64.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#213) | 1.3 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#241) | 0.29 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#239) | 0.24 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#229) | 0.505 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NJIT | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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