Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MIA +500 DUKE -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -5.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.9 (+5.9) | 137.2 (+14.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -4.4 (+6.4) | 138.1 (+13.9) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -4.1 (+6.1) | 138.2 (+13.8) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.7 (+6.7) | 137.6 (+14.4) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | DUKE 97 – 60 MIA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 54 MIA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 55 MIA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DUKE 85 – 78 MIA |
| Feb 7, 2023 | MIA 81 – 59 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-17 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 4-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-8 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 8.8 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#166) | 1.47 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#155) | 2.37 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#207) | 0.545 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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