Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ND -200 WAKE +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ND -3.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.7 (+16.3) | 140.2 (-3.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.4 (+17.6) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.5 (+16.5) | 137.6 (-0.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.6 (+16.4) | 139.8 (-2.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | WAKE 74 – 71 ND |
| Mar 13, 2024 | WAKE 72 – 59 ND |
| Feb 28, 2024 | ND 70 – 65 WAKE |
| Feb 26, 2023 | WAKE 66 – 58 ND |
| Feb 4, 2023 | WAKE 81 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#81) | 6.3 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#98) | 0.21 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#81) | 0.39 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#136) | 0.474 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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