Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | IU +150 ILL -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -4.8 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.0 (-1.0) | 146.7 (-0.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.5 (-0.5) | 145.7 (+0.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.8 (-1.2) | 148.2 (-2.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.6 (-1.4) | 148.2 (-2.2) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ILL 71 – 51 IU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | ILL 94 – 69 IU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | ILL 70 – 62 IU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | IU 71 – 68 ILL |
| Jan 20, 2023 | IU 80 – 65 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#28) | 20.2 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#50) | 2.76 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#38) | 4.28 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#78) | 0.601 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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