Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TEX +225 BAY -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -6.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -4.3 (-9.7) | 148.4 (+3.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.0 (-10.0) | 145.8 (+6.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -3.5 (-10.5) | 148.1 (+3.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -3.3 (-10.7) | 148.2 (+3.8) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2024 | BAY 93 – 85 TEX |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TEX 75 – 73 BAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | BAY 81 – 72 TEX |
| Jan 31, 2023 | TEX 76 – 71 BAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | BAY 68 – 61 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-8 | 28-2 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 13-1 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-0 |
| Away | 6-2 | 7-1 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#16) | 24.3 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#8) | 5.31 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#7) | 7.30 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#10) | 0.650 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 43.4% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 26.0% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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