Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -400 MSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -17.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -14.2 (-8.2) | 157.1 (+4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -13.5 (-7.5) | 159.8 (+2.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -15.3 (-9.3) | 160.0 (+2.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -15.4 (-9.4) | 157.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | MSU 71 – 52 IOWA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MSU 91 – 84 IOWA |
| Feb 21, 2024 | IOWA 78 – 71 MSU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | IOWA 112 – 106 MSU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MSU 63 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.7 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#4) | 5.3 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#14) | 1.43 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#10) | 2.51 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#47) | 0.512 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.06 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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