Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -188 UNLV +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -6.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -5.2 (+4.8) | 144.4 (-10.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -4.1 (+5.9) | 140.1 (-6.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -5.9 (+4.1) | 142.4 (-8.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -5.8 (+4.2) | 143.8 (-9.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNLV 85 – 83 NEV |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 55 NEV |
| Feb 2, 2025 | NEV 71 – 65 UNLV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NEV 75 – 65 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#118) | -0.5 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#141) | -0.07 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#137) | -0.18 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#134) | 0.497 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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