Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -200 AKR +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +15 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.2 (+8.8) | 148.4 (+18.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.6 (+9.4) | 151.5 (+15.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -7.0 (+8.0) | 151.0 (+16.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -6.4 (+8.6) | 147.9 (+19.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#59) | 5.8 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#51) | 0.85 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#42) | 0.96 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#39) | 0.546 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.