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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–8 on winners spread MAE 8.3 25 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Duke @ NC State	-7.1	150.3	26%	79–64	✓
Jacksonville @ Kennesaw State	+6.4	155.7	72%	92–86	✗
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast	+5.3	151.7	68%	69–63	✗
North Carolina Central @ Morgan State	-7.0	149.5	26%	79–88	✗
Delaware State @ Howard	+4.9	149.6	67%	66–85	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State	+13.4	134.6	89%	50–69	✓
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word	-1.7	143.2	44%	73–56	✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State	-2.0	147.1	43%	68–62	✓
South Carolina State @ Coppin State	-7.1	134.7	26%	61–58	✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M	-5.4	147.6	31%	70–53	✓
New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+16.8	150.5	94%	60–73	✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese	+29.0	149.0	100%	69–87	✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona	-4.7	160.3	33%	82–74	✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern	+4.8	141.1	67%	82–79	✗
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M	-0.9	146.5	47%	79–74	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling	+3.9	136.9	64%	60–69	✓
Texas @ Baylor	+7.6	151.2	75%	85–93	✓
Florida A&M @ Southern	+11.9	141.1	86%	44–58	✓
Weber State @ Montana State	-3.7	143.0	37%	64–76	✗
Idaho State @ Montana	+8.4	143.0	78%	65–79	✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State	-8.4	144.1	22%	91–88	✓
Idaho @ Portland State	+7.8	137.4	76%	57–72	✓
Holy Cross @ Army	+5.8	128.0	70%	84–68	✗
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe	+1.0	146.7	54%	75–71	✗
UMass Lowell @ Maine	-1.6	137.5	44%	65–71	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.