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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morgan State
@
Campbell
|
+10.0 | 132.7 | 82% | 76–83 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Michigan State
|
+11.6 | 132.5 | 85% | 62–79 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Duquesne
|
+5.1 | 145.2 | 68% | 67–69 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Marist
|
+20.3 | 133.2 | 97% | 52–76 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Wake Forest
|
+17.5 | 149.0 | 94% | 59–88 | ✓ |
Quinnipiac
@
Holy Cross
|
-6.0 | 149.8 | 29% | 77–57 | ✓ |
Maine
@
UCF
|
+11.7 | 136.3 | 86% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Little Rock
|
+4.1 | 162.7 | 65% | 66–80 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Chicago State
|
+6.3 | 141.2 | 72% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Tarleton State
|
+5.3 | 125.5 | 69% | 65–62 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Evansville
|
+11.8 | 170.3 | 86% | 91–98 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Lamar
|
+8.4 | 156.6 | 78% | 82–79 | ✗ |
UC San Diego
@
Sacramento State
|
-0.9 | 139.1 | 47% | 83–52 | ✓ |
Portland State
@
Fresno State
|
-1.6 | 138.0 | 44% | 75–72 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Cal Poly
|
-0.1 | 156.4 | 49% | 62–53 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Loyola Marymount
|
+16.8 | 137.9 | 94% | 56–76 | ✓ |
Hampton
@
Bowling Green
|
+17.7 | 145.1 | 95% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Valparaiso
|
-5.3 | 151.2 | 32% | 79–61 | ✓ |
Florida Gulf Coast
@
Georgia Southern
|
+1.0 | 145.7 | 54% | 53–42 | ✗ |
The Citadel
@
Notre Dame
|
+3.7 | 125.1 | 63% | 65–45 | ✗ |
Niagara
@
Binghamton
|
+13.3 | 156.7 | 89% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Butler
|
+16.8 | 159.6 | 94% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Indiana
|
+5.6 | 143.4 | 69% | 68–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.