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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–3 on winners
spread MAE 11.0
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Georgia Southern
@
Tennessee
|
+35.8 | 147.9 | 100% | 56–74 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Duke
|
+11.5 | 150.2 | 85% | 68–89 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Cincinnati
|
+21.0 | 148.9 | 97% | 53–85 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+20.7 | 126.4 | 97% | 60–89 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
Wright State
|
+8.9 | 163.7 | 79% | 91–84 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
NC State
|
+16.8 | 172.2 | 94% | 67–81 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
Saint Peter's
|
+15.8 | 147.1 | 92% | 60–66 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-3.2 | 159.3 | 39% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Maryland
|
+16.3 | 141.4 | 93% | 65–105 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
South Florida
|
+19.1 | 163.0 | 96% | 86–104 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Radford
|
+13.1 | 141.2 | 88% | 56–73 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Sam Houston
|
+12.6 | 143.5 | 87% | 62–63 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Northern Iowa
|
+6.8 | 150.6 | 73% | 55–74 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
Southern Illinois
|
+17.4 | 122.5 | 94% | 70–68 | ✗ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Minnesota
|
+24.4 | 136.8 | 99% | 65–101 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
UIC
|
+16.4 | 123.6 | 93% | 70–68 | ✗ |
Coppin State
@
Georgetown
|
+20.0 | 138.0 | 97% | 54–71 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Boise State
|
+20.3 | 143.8 | 97% | 54–95 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Texas Tech
|
+11.7 | 142.8 | 86% | 76–82 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Oregon
|
+10.1 | 144.4 | 82% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Rice
|
+5.6 | 157.1 | 69% | 57–80 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Stony Brook
|
+1.1 | 138.4 | 54% | 78–84 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.