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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida International
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+26.3 | 155.5 | 99% | 60–94 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Dartmouth
|
-0.3 | 122.8 | 49% | 54–63 | ✗ |
North Alabama
@
Charleston Southern
|
-6.7 | 145.9 | 27% | 76–64 | ✓ |
App State
@
Queens University
|
-7.1 | 148.6 | 26% | 93–81 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Toledo
|
+15.2 | 158.2 | 92% | 87–88 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Mississippi State
|
+18.2 | 137.1 | 95% | 81–85 | ✓ |
UTSA
@
Little Rock
|
+9.9 | 174.3 | 82% | 84–93 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Northwestern
|
+22.0 | 135.5 | 98% | 75–73 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
Milwaukee
|
-7.9 | 150.5 | 24% | 80–67 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Alabama A&M
|
-3.7 | 157.1 | 37% | 93–82 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Louisville
|
+3.2 | 150.1 | 62% | 75–63 | ✗ |
Alabama State
@
LSU
|
+10.3 | 145.5 | 83% | 56–74 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Auburn
|
+18.9 | 152.0 | 96% | 62–87 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
McNeese
|
+17.9 | 143.6 | 95% | 48–67 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Louisiana
|
+10.9 | 149.2 | 84% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Liberty
|
+14.8 | 143.5 | 91% | 52–74 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
UNLV
|
-21.7 | 152.5 | 2% | 64–79 | ✗ |
Denver
@
BYU
|
+27.6 | 159.6 | 99% | 74–90 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
San Francisco
|
+10.3 | 133.1 | 83% | 59–62 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Nevada
|
+8.3 | 131.7 | 78% | 55–72 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Santa Clara
|
-5.4 | 152.0 | 31% | 84–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.