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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–0 on winners
spread MAE 4.6
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacksonville
@
South Carolina State
|
+1.7 | 155.3 | 56% | 85–86 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Robert Morris
|
-5.7 | 146.3 | 30% | 73–69 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Pennsylvania
|
+5.0 | 162.1 | 68% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Columbia
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
-2.4 | 159.5 | 41% | 87–83 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Quinnipiac
|
-1.5 | 154.5 | 45% | 73–66 | ✓ |
Stonehill
@
New Hampshire
|
+22.4 | 155.8 | 98% | 62–75 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Samford
|
+21.2 | 156.3 | 97% | 91–118 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Gonzaga
|
+39.7 | 135.9 | 100% | 40–78 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Cal State Northridge
|
+3.4 | 147.4 | 62% | 75–80 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
San Francisco
|
+22.3 | 146.4 | 98% | 72–85 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
UMass Lowell
|
+24.6 | 148.9 | 99% | 65–78 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Seton Hall
|
+9.9 | 142.4 | 82% | 61–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.