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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–10 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LSU
@
Alabama
|
+7.8 | 166.0 | 76% | 60–78 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Pittsburgh
|
-4.3 | 137.9 | 35% | 72–83 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Missouri
|
+6.5 | 136.5 | 72% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
La Salle
|
-11.8 | 143.4 | 14% | 75–82 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
Providence
|
+0.5 | 148.5 | 52% | 60–43 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Rhode Island
|
-0.5 | 137.8 | 48% | 63–62 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Wofford
|
+6.4 | 149.6 | 72% | 84–80 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
Western Carolina
|
-0.8 | 151.1 | 47% | 74–67 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Mercer
|
+0.9 | 143.4 | 53% | 70–64 | ✗ |
UNC Greensboro
@
The Citadel
|
-6.5 | 162.6 | 28% | 85–66 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Bowling Green
|
+13.8 | 142.6 | 89% | 76–70 | ✗ |
Incarnate Word
@
Lamar
|
-0.1 | 137.3 | 50% | 67–58 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Wichita State
|
+10.5 | 140.0 | 83% | 67–75 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Memphis
|
+8.6 | 136.3 | 78% | 61–75 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-11.2 | 142.0 | 15% | 84–75 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
St. John's
|
-8.1 | 159.5 | 23% | 59–70 | ✗ |
Virginia
@
NC State
|
-7.3 | 135.4 | 25% | 64–57 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Creighton
|
+14.6 | 149.9 | 91% | 86–79 | ✗ |
SMU
@
Tulsa
|
-1.2 | 135.6 | 46% | 65–63 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
TCU
|
-4.6 | 144.1 | 34% | 78–81 | ✗ |
Tennessee State
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+3.6 | 132.9 | 63% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
+2.1 | 148.1 | 57% | 74–67 | ✗ |
Saint Francis
@
Merrimack
|
+2.6 | 140.0 | 59% | 62–68 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Radford
|
+10.8 | 136.8 | 84% | 61–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.