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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baylor
@
Texas
|
-6.5 | 149.9 | 28% | 83–69 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Iowa
|
+17.6 | 161.7 | 95% | 78–84 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Ole Miss
|
-5.6 | 120.2 | 31% | 50–52 | ✗ |
West Virginia
@
Iowa State
|
-13.9 | 144.1 | 10% | 76–72 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Jacksonville State
|
-1.0 | 154.7 | 46% | 86–82 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+22.6 | 153.7 | 98% | 63–64 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Clemson
|
-0.6 | 129.9 | 48% | 50–63 | ✗ |
Georgia
@
Auburn
|
+8.4 | 160.6 | 78% | 91–86 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Toledo
|
+6.4 | 149.5 | 72% | 76–91 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Kansas
|
+18.7 | 136.3 | 96% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Coppin State
|
-6.6 | 158.1 | 27% | 95–82 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Wisconsin
|
+4.7 | 144.8 | 66% | 56–72 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Indiana
|
-4.4 | 145.6 | 34% | 75–71 | ✓ |
USC
@
Stanford
|
-1.7 | 141.9 | 44% | 72–66 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Nevada
|
+6.2 | 145.2 | 71% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Duquesne
|
+0.2 | 127.1 | 51% | 64–69 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Arkansas
|
+9.0 | 150.4 | 79% | 45–61 | ✓ |
Elon
@
James Madison
|
+11.8 | 143.0 | 86% | 57–78 | ✓ |
Houston
@
East Carolina
|
-16.7 | 126.3 | 6% | 73–82 | ✗ |
Fordham
@
Massachusetts
|
+19.8 | 135.4 | 96% | 54–60 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Florida
|
+12.4 | 156.8 | 87% | 72–66 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.