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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–2 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Illinois State
@
Drake
|
+21.1 | 146.4 | 97% | 60–95 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-2.4 | 139.6 | 41% | 77–60 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
Wofford
|
+2.0 | 134.7 | 57% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Evansville
|
+2.0 | 130.6 | 57% | 51–58 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Miami
|
-6.1 | 137.7 | 29% | 75–77 | ✗ |
UCF
@
Memphis
|
+5.9 | 132.7 | 70% | 69–96 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Missouri State
|
-8.9 | 137.2 | 21% | 70–50 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Jackson State
|
+15.1 | 139.9 | 92% | 55–63 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Grambling
|
+29.4 | 142.4 | 100% | 72–85 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+17.1 | 121.3 | 94% | 63–87 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Texas Southern
|
+3.3 | 150.3 | 62% | 49–66 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Texas Tech
|
+4.3 | 138.4 | 65% | 52–57 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+25.2 | 149.6 | 99% | 77–91 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
NJIT
|
-1.8 | 134.3 | 44% | 75–71 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Marquette
|
+6.5 | 127.5 | 72% | 67–70 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Notre Dame
|
+3.7 | 142.7 | 63% | 58–79 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Central Michigan
|
-8.2 | 159.2 | 23% | 83–69 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+4.6 | 142.7 | 66% | 70–61 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Kent State
|
+11.0 | 151.2 | 84% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Ball State
|
-3.9 | 155.8 | 36% | 78–58 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Maryland
|
+0.9 | 135.1 | 53% | 60–61 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.