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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–5 on winners
spread MAE 12.1
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Texas
@
McNeese
|
+1.1 | 133.0 | 46% | 61–68 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Florida International
|
+4.7 | 144.1 | 69% | 75–70 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
NC State
|
+14.0 | 140.7 | 86% | 49–72 | ✓ |
American University
@
High Point
|
+14.3 | 136.2 | 87% | 73–80 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
George Washington
|
+23.8 | 138.3 | 91% | 64–84 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Pittsburgh
|
+19.4 | 142.8 | 90% | 48–93 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
North Florida
|
+21.0 | 155.7 | 90% | 89–75 | ✗ |
Monmouth
@
Wichita State
|
+16.5 | 155.6 | 90% | 66–70 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
UL Monroe
|
+0.4 | 139.4 | 46% | 70–67 | ✗ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Iowa State
|
+17.8 | 145.1 | 89% | 52–87 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Wisconsin
|
+13.5 | 156.4 | 85% | 84–87 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Arkansas
|
+13.0 | 132.3 | 86% | 72–91 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Southern Illinois
|
+3.6 | 150.6 | 63% | 44–69 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Texas Tech
|
+26.5 | 156.0 | 91% | 64–98 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
SMU
|
+14.2 | 152.3 | 87% | 69–110 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Auburn
|
+18.4 | 153.3 | 89% | 69–102 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Utah State
|
+23.2 | 150.2 | 91% | 83–95 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Washington State
|
+6.9 | 153.3 | 72% | 69–83 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
San Diego State
|
-7.8 | 143.9 | 25% | 80–67 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
-4.3 | 132.1 | 33% | 61–62 | ✗ |
Quinnipiac
@
Navy
|
+1.6 | 144.7 | 51% | 74–63 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Boston College
|
+4.2 | 138.4 | 68% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Binghamton
|
-1.2 | 139.4 | 36% | 66–60 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
App State
|
+1.8 | 134.1 | 54% | 53–65 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.