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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–3 on winners
spread MAE 12.1
8 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cal Poly
@
Eastern Washington
|
+6.3 | 148.5 | 74% | 82–78 | ✗ |
Tarleton State
@
Baylor
|
+23.3 | 142.3 | 90% | 41–104 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
Arizona State
|
+7.2 | 144.5 | 73% | 66–81 | ✓ |
California
@
USC
|
+6.9 | 149.4 | 77% | 71–66 | ✗ |
Weber State
@
Hawai'i
|
+13.5 | 141.4 | 88% | 68–73 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Washington
|
+12.5 | 143.1 | 86% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Michigan
|
+17.4 | 145.8 | 88% | 67–94 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Delaware
|
+0.2 | 147.2 | 47% | 85–84 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.