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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–6 on winners
spread MAE 11.1
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SE Louisiana
@
South Alabama
|
+10.5 | 146.8 | 84% | 68–70 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Youngstown State
|
+4.6 | 147.9 | 69% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
SMU
|
+13.2 | 150.3 | 88% | 58–68 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
Saint Louis
|
+6.7 | 148.5 | 74% | 80–68 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Southern Utah
|
+1.3 | 141.9 | 53% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
BYU
|
+11.5 | 147.7 | 86% | 72–93 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Florida
|
+6.2 | 146.4 | 70% | 74–79 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Rutgers
|
-2.8 | 135.6 | 37% | 89–87 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Colorado State
|
+0.3 | 141.9 | 53% | 75–63 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Providence
|
+2.7 | 155.1 | 62% | 57–66 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Boise State
|
-1.1 | 133.9 | 45% | 64–53 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Baylor
|
+14.4 | 140.0 | 87% | 49–85 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Tennessee
|
+13.7 | 136.1 | 86% | 56–88 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Iowa
|
+8.5 | 152.6 | 80% | 67–63 | ✗ |
Georgia State
@
Gonzaga
|
+16.5 | 152.0 | 87% | 72–93 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
North Carolina
|
+1.6 | 153.8 | 56% | 63–95 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
UConn
|
+5.8 | 135.0 | 74% | 70–63 | ✗ |
Saint Peter's
@
Kentucky
|
+12.1 | 134.8 | 85% | 85–79 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Saint Mary's
|
+2.1 | 128.7 | 59% | 53–82 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
San Diego State
|
+1.0 | 124.9 | 55% | 72–69 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.