Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | USA -400 SELA +325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | USA -11.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -10.5 (-8.5) | 148.0 (-10.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -10.5 (-8.5) | 146.8 (-8.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -10.5 (-8.5) | 147.8 (-9.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -10.4 (-8.4) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#136) | -6.7 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#145) | -0.78 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#143) | -1.16 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#117) | 0.509 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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