Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -2000 NICH +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -14.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -13.6 (-3.6) | 153.4 (-27.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -13.2 (-3.2) | 150.3 (-24.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -13.1 (-3.1) | 150.5 (-24.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -13.7 (-3.7) | 151.1 (-25.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 11-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#50) | -1.8 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#56) | -0.47 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#59) | -0.69 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#50) | 0.516 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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