Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | BYU -700 LBSU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BYU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +21 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | BYU -11.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -15.2 (+5.8) | 148.4 (+16.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -11.5 (+9.5) | 147.7 (+17.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -12.2 (+8.8) | 149.7 (+15.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -10.9 (+10.1) | 148.0 (+17.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BYU | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-6 | 12-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#62) | 0.5 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#57) | 0.54 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#47) | 0.66 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#41) | 0.550 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BYU | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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