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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vermont
@
Arkansas
|
+3.0 | 142.1 | 64% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Fresno State
|
+12.6 | 135.4 | 86% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Akron
@
UCLA
|
+11.9 | 135.0 | 85% | 53–57 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Murray State
|
-0.9 | 142.3 | 48% | 87–92 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Kansas
|
+14.8 | 142.7 | 87% | 56–83 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Ohio State
|
-2.1 | 139.1 | 40% | 41–54 | ✗ |
Jacksonville State
@
Auburn
|
+13.6 | 142.0 | 86% | 61–80 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Texas Tech
|
+12.3 | 137.0 | 86% | 62–97 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Purdue
|
+12.9 | 143.7 | 86% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Villanova
|
+13.0 | 134.5 | 86% | 60–80 | ✓ |
Miami
@
USC
|
+1.9 | 142.6 | 58% | 68–66 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Alabama
|
+1.7 | 154.4 | 55% | 78–64 | ✗ |
Virginia Tech
@
Texas
|
+1.3 | 130.9 | 55% | 73–81 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Illinois
|
+5.5 | 139.6 | 69% | 53–54 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
Duke
|
+12.6 | 144.8 | 86% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Arizona
|
+16.4 | 157.5 | 87% | 70–87 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
LSU
|
+4.5 | 130.6 | 66% | 59–54 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.