← All models
Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.2
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.2 | 141.7 | 52% | 73–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 143.5 | 79% | 68–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 132.3 | 54% | 69–42 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.2 | 140.7 | 77% | 60–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 144.0 | 74% | 60–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.6 | 141.5 | 20% | 87–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 149.0 | 74% | 93–86 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.1 | 145.3 | 24% | 68–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.0 | 140.4 | 78% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 145.3 | 77% | 54–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 142.8 | 73% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.6 | 138.8 | 24% | 64–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 137.5 | 73% | 76–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 138.0 | 65% | 51–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 128.7 | 58% | 56–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 144.6 | 30% | 65–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.