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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–6 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Peter's
@
Murray State
|
+7.4 | 131.6 | 77% | 70–60 | ✗ |
New Mexico State
@
Arkansas
|
+4.4 | 141.6 | 65% | 48–53 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
BYU
|
+8.3 | 149.2 | 78% | 71–90 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Gonzaga
|
+7.9 | 155.6 | 79% | 78–82 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Portland
|
+6.3 | 152.4 | 74% | 73–94 | ✓ |
VMI
@
UNC Wilmington
|
+0.6 | 148.8 | 54% | 78–93 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Illinois
|
-4.9 | 135.8 | 33% | 68–53 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Xavier
|
+4.0 | 147.1 | 67% | 56–72 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Northern Colorado
|
-5.3 | 152.5 | 30% | 71–74 | ✗ |
Ohio State
@
Villanova
|
+5.4 | 133.7 | 71% | 61–71 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
SMU
|
+2.9 | 137.9 | 69% | 75–63 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
Vanderbilt
|
+2.4 | 133.6 | 62% | 68–70 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Boston University
|
-1.9 | 132.7 | 44% | 68–71 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Duke
|
+4.2 | 146.9 | 66% | 76–85 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
North Texas
|
+5.4 | 118.6 | 70% | 71–69 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
Wisconsin
|
+0.9 | 126.9 | 56% | 54–49 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Texas Tech
|
+7.7 | 136.4 | 77% | 53–59 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Troy
|
-3.9 | 137.8 | 37% | 82–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.