Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | UNCO +170 FAU -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -6.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -4.8 (+7.8) | 149.3 (-4.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -5.3 (+8.3) | 152.5 (-7.5) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -5.0 (+8.0) | 152.2 (-7.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -4.7 (+7.7) | 151.3 (-6.3) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#223) | 3.0 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#186) | -0.01 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#189) | 0.15 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#123) | 0.487 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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