Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | BU +105 UNCG -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -1.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.2 (+5.2) | 128.0 (+11.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.9 (+4.9) | 132.7 (+6.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.0 (+5.0) | 133.4 (+5.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.1 (+5.1) | 131.8 (+7.2) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#210) | -0.7 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#210) | 0.27 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#217) | 0.18 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#196) | 0.508 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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