Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 109.0 Over |
| Money | UNT -125 UVA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -4.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 100.7 (+39.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -5.3 (-7.3) | 115.4 (+24.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -5.4 (-7.4) | 118.6 (+21.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -6.0 (-8.0) | 121.9 (+18.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -5.3 (-7.3) | 122.9 (+17.1) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#65) | 7.0 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#51) | 1.55 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#58) | 1.81 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#20) | 0.543 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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