Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TROY +210 ACU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +12 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -4.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -4.3 (-7.7) | 137.0 (+15.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -3.9 (-8.1) | 137.8 (+14.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -3.2 (-8.8) | 137.3 (+14.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -4.1 (-7.9) | 136.9 (+15.1) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#198) | 3.1 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#141) | 0.71 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#141) | 0.83 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#151) | 0.520 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 28.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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