Betting Lines
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -135 VMI +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +15 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -1.1 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -0.4 (+15.4) | 151.1 (+19.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -0.6 (+14.4) | 148.8 (+22.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.2 (+14.8) | 149.6 (+21.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.6 (+14.4) | 150.4 (+20.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#186) | 0.1 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#110) | 0.04 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#136) | 0.21 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#120) | 0.505 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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