Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | PFW +400 DRKE -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +22 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -10.6 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -10.4 (-11.6) | 138.9 (+13.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -9.6 (-12.4) | 141.5 (+10.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -8.6 (-13.4) | 139.4 (+12.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -8.9 (-13.1) | 139.6 (+12.4) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-6 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#230) | 7.1 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#212) | 1.00 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#228) | 1.14 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#199) | 0.532 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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