Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -190 VCU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -5.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -4.4 (+1.6) | 144.4 (+9.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -6.5 (-0.5) | 142.8 (+11.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -6.3 (-0.3) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -5.8 (+0.2) | 142.2 (+11.8) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 18-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 62.4 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#32) | 9.1 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#52) | 1.91 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#51) | 2.04 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#78) | 0.591 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.