Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | UNCA +250 SFA -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -6.9 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.7 (+18.7) | 144.6 (+3.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.1 (+19.1) | 145.3 (+2.7) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.0 (+19.0) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -7.1 (+19.1) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#224) | 3.8 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#238) | 0.95 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#230) | 0.81 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#235) | 0.557 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.