Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | FRES -950 EWU +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -13.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -9.3 (-0.3) | 131.5 (+25.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -12.6 (-3.6) | 135.4 (+21.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -12.6 (-3.6) | 136.5 (+20.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -12.0 (-3.0) | 137.3 (+19.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#76) | -3.2 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#97) | -0.44 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#89) | -0.48 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#134) | 0.489 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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