Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | YSU -290 MORG +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -7.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -4.0 (+1.0) | 143.0 (-8.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -4.6 (+0.4) | 147.9 (-12.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -5.1 (-0.1) | 147.4 (-12.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -5.2 (-0.2) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 12-9 | 7-6 |
| Home | 13-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#250) | -9.2 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#269) | -1.52 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#269) | -1.95 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#278) | 0.449 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 30.7% |
Game Analysis
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