Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SLU -170 UNI +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +12 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | SLU -6.6 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -8.5 (-20.5) | 144.8 (+3.2) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -6.7 (-18.7) | 148.5 (-0.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -7.4 (-19.4) | 148.8 (-0.8) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -6.8 (-18.8) | 146.6 (+1.4) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#56) | 5.7 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#66) | 0.81 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#73) | 1.08 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#48) | 0.560 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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