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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas State
@
North Texas
|
+9.7 | 122.7 | 79% | 63–67 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Xavier
|
+13.6 | 153.2 | 87% | 68–72 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Texas A&M
|
+16.1 | 141.3 | 89% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
Utah State
|
+7.6 | 144.8 | 75% | 83–72 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Wyoming
|
-1.6 | 133.9 | 44% | 66–58 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Washington State
|
+6.6 | 152.0 | 72% | 50–63 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Colorado
|
+5.7 | 138.8 | 71% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Bryant
@
Wright State
|
+0.5 | 151.9 | 52% | 82–93 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+4.8 | 154.0 | 70% | 79–95 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Coastal Carolina
|
+10.6 | 133.6 | 86% | 42–66 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Wake Forest
|
+6.1 | 144.9 | 71% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Toledo
|
+3.0 | 140.3 | 61% | 74–55 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Virginia
|
+0.9 | 127.8 | 53% | 57–60 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
UMBC
|
+5.9 | 136.1 | 70% | 1–0 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.