Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -150 SBU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -4.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -5.1 (-13.1) | 137.5 (+6.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -5.7 (-13.7) | 138.8 (+5.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -6.3 (-14.3) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -5.7 (-13.7) | 139.8 (+4.2) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#67) | 6.6 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#55) | 1.63 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#53) | 1.83 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#106) | 0.574 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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