Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | CCU -1100 UMES +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +24 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -12.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -9.9 (+14.1) | 132.1 (-24.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -10.6 (+13.4) | 133.6 (-25.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -10.4 (+13.6) | 133.4 (-25.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -10.4 (+13.6) | 133.6 (-25.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-8 |
| Home | 13-7 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 62.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#155) | -8.9 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#175) | -1.59 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#173) | -2.23 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.449 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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