Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TA&M -7000 ALCN +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -19.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TA&M -16.1 (-4.1) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -16.1 (-4.1) | 141.3 (-5.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -17.6 (-5.6) | 141.1 (-5.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TA&M -17.3 (-5.3) | 140.8 (-4.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#48) | -6.3 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#39) | -0.67 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#41) | -1.00 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#69) | 0.504 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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