Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -258 MRMK +214 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +1 | 1 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -7.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-131.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -7.5 (-8.5) | 101.7 (-100.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -5.9 (-6.9) | 136.1 (-135.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.5 (-7.5) | 99.3 (-98.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -5.6 (-6.6) | 117.0 (-116.0) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 58.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#236) | -7.9 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#221) | -1.41 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#227) | -1.80 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#207) | 0.459 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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