Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.0 Under |
| Money | UVA -150 MSST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -0.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.9 (+2.1) | 120.8 (-3.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.9 (+2.1) | 127.8 (-10.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -1.5 (+1.5) | 127.2 (-10.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -1.5 (+1.5) | 123.6 (-6.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#87) | 10.3 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#77) | 1.49 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#82) | 1.81 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#91) | 0.540 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.