Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 117.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -420 TXST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +4 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -10.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -9.7 (-5.7) | 122.7 (+7.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -10.0 (-6.0) | 116.7 (+13.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -9.7 (-5.7) | 123.0 (+7.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -10.5 (-6.5) | 122.7 (+7.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#64) | 1.3 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#48) | 1.00 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#61) | 0.92 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#23) | 0.545 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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