Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | XAV -700 CLE +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -14.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -13.6 (-9.6) | 153.2 (-13.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -11.8 (-7.8) | 151.5 (-11.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -13.2 (-9.2) | 153.8 (-13.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -13.1 (-9.1) | 154.9 (-14.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 15-6 |
| Home | 16-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#40) | -1.0 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#43) | -0.34 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#45) | -0.47 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#70) | 0.499 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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