Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | TOL -135 DAY +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +19 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -1.3 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -1.9 (-20.9) | 136.8 (-7.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.0 (-22.0) | 140.3 (-11.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -2.8 (-21.8) | 142.9 (-13.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -1.4 (-20.4) | 139.0 (-10.0) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 61.2 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#76) | 9.2 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#81) | 1.43 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#95) | 1.88 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#47) | 0.563 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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